Fantasy Baseball: Examining Andy Pages, Jos Soriano and more early-season regression candidates
Regression has become a misused word in the fantasy space. Its important to identify things that are unsustainable in sports. Hot starts that will cool, cold starts that will fade away. But we cant simply yell out Regression! and drop the mic. We need to figure out, what level will things regress to?Said another way, regression is a great way to start the conversation. Its not the end of the conversation.With that all in mind, today well look at some of the hot starters in MLB through a couple of weeks. All of these players will regress over the balance of the year, because nobody ends a season with a .400 average or a perfect ERA. But lets try to intelligently guess how real these starts are, and how we might approach these players moving forward.Andy Pages, OF, DodgersPages had a good year last season, if not a full breakout. His .272/.313/.461 slash worked out to a 115 OPS+, an above-average offensive player. Alas, Pages ran out of hits in the playoffs, mired in a 4-for-42 October slump. He had nine strikeouts against zero walks in October.Pages has been everywhere for two weeks, rocking a .452 average and hitting three homers. Improved plate discipline tells a lot of the story. Pages was in the 18th percentile for chase rate last year, but its bumped to 43% this year. And when hes making contact, loud things happen. Hisexpected average is a juicy .322, his expected slugging a robust .533. We know that fortunate .533 BABIP is going to disappear, but Pages is a bonafide hitter.Pages has a solidified spot in the deep Los Angeles batting order, moving up to fifth and sixth in recent games. His excellent defense also marks his regular spot. Pages had a March ADP in the 140s, but its just outside 100 for the past week or so, and I support that market trend. He should end the year with a plus average and 25-30 homers, and hell steal a base about every two weeks.Chandler Simpson, OF, RaysTampa Bay has always been a knuckleball organization in MLB, a club that thinks differently. So I guess I wasnt surprised to see Simpson batting between third and fifth in recent games, despite his lack of power. Simpson doesnt have a homer in his 120-game career, and his career slugging is a puny .355. But Tampa Bay doesnt mind thinking differently.Simpson already had elite contact skills, but its been otherworldly this season hes cut the strikeouts down to 4.4%. Hes also nudged his walk rate up almost 50%. The pretty .405 average is obviously a result of favorable outcomes a .425 BABIP waves hello. But its interesting to note that Simpson had a .295 expected average last year, and thats also where hes at today. If Simpson can give us the bankable average boost and mix in 40-plus steals, hes a credible fantasy commodity, even without the power.The tiebreaker for Simpson might come down to his batting slot. He opened the year hitting in the lower third more often than not, and his quick start earned him a promotion. He feels miscast as a No. 3 or No. 5 hitter, given his lack of power, but if he can simply stick in the top half of the Tampa Bay lineup somewhere, it will help his run production.Yahoos market has stayed firm on Chandler, still viewing him as a Pick 190-type of player. I probably would have passed on that ticket a month ago, not wanting to tie to a limited-category player, but Im a little more open-minded today, if the lineup promotion is real. You just need a specific type of roster build for a Chandler to make sense.Jos Soriano, SP, AngelsIts nice to see something work out for this organization every now and then. The Angels signed Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Anthony Rendon to big contracts in the middle of their careers, and every deal went down as a bust. Pairing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani looked like a dream scenario, but Trouts been injury-riddled for several years, and the Angelsnever had a winning recordwhile Trout and Ohtani were teammates. Now Ohtani is rewriting history with the big-brother Dodgers about 30 miles away, while the Angels are stuck with their non-contending club.So lets talk about a fun OC story, like Sorianos first three starts (three wins, 0.45 ERA, 0.65 WHIP).Soriano is one of those quirky pitchers who makes the radar gun pop but doesnt strike out that many batters. Well, perhaps thats a problem in the past. His strikeout rate has risen through three starts this year (a bump of 8.6%) and his walk rate has come down. And because Sorianos best pitch is a power sinker, hes still getting ground balls by the truckload.Sorianonever lacks for options, mixing a sinker, knuckle curve, slider and splitter in with his more traditional four-seam fastball. This year hes been getting more swings out of the strike zone (a bump of almost 13%), which explains the strikeout jump. Throw in a big drop in walks and you have an outlier start that, while fortunate, comes in as mostly validated (2.60 FIP, 2.90 xERA). Pitcher breakouts can happen at any time, but theres a reassuring nature when theyre tied to someone entering their age-27 season, as Soriano is.Noah Cameron, SP, RoyalsI dont want this piece to be all validation stories, so Ill reluctantly throw some cold water on Cameron. I say reluctantly because his surprise run last year (2.99 ERA, 1.099 WHIP over 24 starts) was welcome on several of my rosters, and I tried to reacquire him this spring, with mixed success.Cameron's first two starts have been dreamy 1.69 ERA, 1.125 WHIP. His walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, for whatever well make of a sample size so small.I just want to underscore that his xERA is still a robust 4.29. Cameron is a fly-ball pitcher and its obviously fortunate that he hasnt been taken deep yet.The schedule has also been friendly Minnesota and Cleveland, unthreatening matchups. Divisional strength doesnt have as much meaning these days, as MLB tweaked the schedule a few years back. The Royals will play their four division mates 13 times each, for a total of 52 games. The other 110 matchups come outside the soft landing pad,against better opponents.Cameron had a fastball in the 92s last year;this year it tracks at 91.3 mph. At that speed, he needs to be precise with his location. Being left-handed helps somewhat. I still think Cameron can be a roster-worthy arm at the back of a mixed-league rotation, but I understand whyevery projection system still calls for an ERA over 4.00 moving forward.
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