College Football Predictions: Joel Klatt's Favorite Over/Under Win Total Bets
Ohio State has won at least 10 regular-season games in 13 consecutive years, not including the COVID year. Yet oddsmakers have set the Buckeyes' 2026 win total at just 9.5. That number caught Joel Klatt's attention as he looked at several over/under totals on a recent episode of his podcast, "The Joel Klatt Show." Klatt's over/under predictions also featured Texas at 9.5 wins ahead of a marquee Week 2 meeting between the two powerhouses. Here's a look at the win totals Klatt likes most entering the 2026 college football season. Klatt: Ohio State is going to have road games at Iowa thats never a cupcake, just ask anybody in the Big Ten that goes to Kinnick Stadium Indiana and USC. Both of those teams are very good in their home stadiums, in particular, Curt Cignetti, who is undefeated at Indiana, at home. USC has been one of the better home teams in the country in the last couple of years under Lincoln Riley. In fact, not many teams have success going from East Coast to West Coast within the conference schedule, so thats a difficult game. And then, they still have home games against Oregon and Michigan. The Buckeyes could, in theory, lose to Texas and still get to 10 wins. There is a path. Ohio State has won 10-plus regular-season games in 13 straight full seasons, not including the COVID year. It goes back even further than that. In 18 of the last 19 years, they've won 10-plus games. The only year they didn't win 10 games was during the Luke Fickell year after everything happened with Jim Tressel, right before Urban Meyer. This program gets to 10, which is why I have a little more confidence regardless of what happens in that game on the road against Texas. History would suggest that the infrastructure is there for this program. Ryan Day is there. They are going to solve whatever they need to solve with eight new starters on defense. We think the offense is going to be spectacular with all of those returning offensive linemen, Jeremiah Smith on the outside, and Julian Sayin back as the incumbent starter at the quarterback position. Klatt: If Texas were to lose that game to Ohio State, it gets dicey, because the Longhorns' schedule is so difficult. They play at Tennessee, Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, host Ole Miss with Trinidad Chambliss, and they have to go to LSU and go to Texas A&M. Thats very difficult, in particular those two road games in November, in Death Valley and in College Station. If they lose to Ohio State, Im definitely on the under. And even if they beat Ohio State, there's a path where they dont get to 10 wins. I think it's more difficult with Texas, even in a win, than it would be with Ohio State. The fact that the game [against Ohio State] is a coin flip, and they have that difficult schedule, I think I would sit on Texas hitting the under this year. Klatt: Its tough to go undefeated. Theres no margin for error whatsoever. The schedule is soft, no doubt. Do we think Notre Dame is going to be one of the best teams in the country? Absolutely. Ive got the Irish at No.2 in my post-spring Top 25. Are they for sure going undefeated? Its going to come down to three games: at BYU, Miami at home and SMU at home. I dont think you can say Notre Dame is definitely better than Miami. And we might get to that point and say Miami found everything they need to find on the offensive and defensive line to replace what they just lost in the draft, and they are just as good or better. What if Darian Mensah is just outstanding? Weve seen transfer quarterbacks now for several years for Miami go in and play right away. I just can't guarantee Notre Dame is going to go undefeated. You get the wrong injury at the wrong time, you get a QB that goes down in the middle of the third quarter. I hope that doesn't happen for CJ Carr, but what if it does? What if their run game doesn't pan out? Again, this doesn't mean Notre Dame isnt going to the playoff. They are almost certainly going to the playoffs, but theyve got to go undefeated to hit the over at 11.5. So, for me, my pick is going to be under 11.5. Klatt: Theyve got an experienced quarterback in Nico Iamaleava with 25 starts. Theyve got two Group of 5 teams. Theyve got a Big Ten schedule that doesn't scare me. Theyve infused a ton of talent. They've got all of those guys coming over with Bob Chesney from an assistant coaching perspective.Theyve got San Diego State, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nevada. I can get to six wins pretty quickly with UCLA. I think they're going to have a lot better roster and more continuity within their staff.If they win those six games, then theyve already hit the over, and there are some coin-flip games in there. Youve got Cal in the opener, Minnesota, home against Illinois, a rivalry game against USC. There are a lot of avenues for UCLA to hit that over and I think they're going to do it. Klatt: Pat Fitzgerald knows how to coach. I get it, I know they dont have a ton on their roster, but hes a real football coach and 3.5 is very low. Im a huge believer in Fitzgerald. I have been for a long time. He's used to finding ways to win. It's not like this guy was just loaded with talent and won because of that and needs to rebuild the roster in order to win. Hes won with rosters that arent as good as the opposition. He kind of specializes in that from his time at Northwestern. And now, hes in East Lansing at a program that has a good infrastructure, a lot of support, and he's a heck of a football coach.The Spartans have Toledo and Eastern Michigan, Nebraska at home, at Wisconsin, Northwestern at home and at Rutgers. You're telling me all you need to go is 4-2? Theyve got two wins right out of the gate against Toledo and Eastern, so they just have to find two throughout the rest of the schedule. They can do that. Fitzgerald can do that. They will get to four, if not five or six. It wouldnt shock me at all if that was a six-win team. I think Michigan State has the ability to upset UCLA, and then the home game against Illinois who knows what Illinois is going to be without Luke Altmyer. They're going to take a step back, at least I believe this, under Bret Bielema. Klatt: They lost Dylan Raiola to the portal. They lost an All-American running back, Emmett Johnson, to the draft. They got UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea. Hes come in with a lot of experience with 30 starts. Hes a dual-threat guy. Nebraska was last in the Big Ten in high school recruiting rankings, which was a bit shocking. It was a small class, which affected it, but still, they should be higher than that in the recruiting rankings. There's no doubt. The schedule lines up for them early, and the Huskers usually get off to a hot start. I think they will get off to a hot start. They could be 5-0 with three lower-level non-conference games and then Michigan State and Maryland, but if they stub their toe at all, look at the backend of that schedule: Indiana, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Ohio State and Iowa. Where are the wins? Five of those teams were in my post-spring Top 25. Nebraska basically has to be perfect early and then still find a win late through that stretch. Thats why this path to me is just a little murkier than most. Nebraska has had bad second halves in a lot of their seasons. Last year, they lost three of their last four. In 2024, they lost five of their last six. In 2023, they lost their last four. Theres a precedent to this. Klatt: They're going to be really good. Mario Crisotbal, all he does is build a good, solid offensive line. Now, they have to play better in big moments, but he has built something in the trenches that I think is sustainable. They are going to have a monster talent advantage in almost every single ACC game. So, I'm not nervous about any ACC games.They're better than Clemson, Florida State, its a coin flip vs. Notre Dame, they're better than Virginia Tech. I get it, history suggests they will lose a game that they shouldnt lose, but I believe that this team is going to be better and more suited for the big games because of their run last year to the national championship game. Klatt: Theyve won 20 games since joining the ACC two years ago. Kevin Jennings is back for Year 3 as a starting quarterback. This is a program that has recruited well. Rhett Lashlee is a heck of a coach. He was going to have strong interest from Arkansas when they made their change early in the season, and SMU, in very smart fashion, tied him up with a long-term contract.If you look at their toughest games, they have at Florida State, at Louisville, vs. Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech and then at Notre Dame. All you need to do is get to nine. You could lose three of these games and still hit the over. So for me, SMU, with their history over the last two years, their history with Lashlee suggests they can get to nine wins. There's an easy path to do that. They might get to 10. This is a team that could potentially be in the ACC championship game. They could absolutely make a playoff run. Klatt: Tosh Lupoi is in his first year as a head coach, ever. They were able to hang on to their quarterback, Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele. They lost their star linebacker to BYU. When you start looking at their schedule, if they lose to potentially UCLA, Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU, NC State, Virginia these are all games that are going to be really tough for Cal. If they lose those six, its an under, and if they lose five, they have no margin for error in their other five games. With a brand-new coach, there's a path for an under there. Klatt: That seems a little low for Georgia, in particular when you look at its SEC schedule. I've said it before, I think Georgia has one of the softer SEC schedules as SEC schedules go. If you look within the conference, it's not as difficult as others.Kirby Smart has eight straight full seasons with 10-plus wins in the regular season. Is Georgia going to win 10 games? Likley. They are going to have to lose a shocking game to go 9-3. Youve got Oklahoma, at Alabama, Florida, at Ole Miss, Missouri, and at South Carolina. I can't get them to three losses, not this program, not this head coach. I know they have struggled sometimes on the road. They can get uninterested sometimes on the road, but again, 9.5 is a low bar for Kirby Smart and Georgia. The schedule is in their favor. Klatt: I think LSU at 8.5 is a little bit low. Theyve got to get through a tough September, and I think they go 3-1 in September. Their tough games are Clemson, at Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I think they can win two of those games. Then they have tough games in November: Alabama, Texas and Tennessee. They might only have to win one of those to get to nine. I think Lane Kiffin is going to do a really good job at LSU. There are not four losses on that schedule. Im going to bet on Lane Kiffin. He did a heck of a job at Ole Miss. I understand why he left there. Yes, I think Lane should have stayed at Ole Miss, and I didnt love the timing of him leaving his team right before the playoff. But, that being said, he's in a great position right now. Theyve infused that program with a ton of support. Its probably the most expensive roster in the country. I think theres going to be a big talent gap when they face teams like Clemson, Ole Miss, and maybe Tennessee and Alabama. LSU, for me, is an easy over 8.5. Klatt: Vanderbilt has seen an unprecedented amount of success in the last two years under Clark Lea, but they lost their engine, their spark plug, Diego Pavia. They have the least amount of returning production in the SEC. They have lost two of their top three receivers, their star tight end, Eli Stowers. They are replacing four starters on the offensive line. They could have a true freshman starting at quarterback. You know how I feel about experience. When you look at their toughest games, theyve got at Auburn, at Georgia, at Ole Miss, vs. Alabama, at Florida and vs. Tennessee. They also have at NC State, Kentucky, at Mississippi State. Sustaining a level of greatness at Vanderbilt is going to be tough to do. There is no doubt. They lose too much. Klatt: I believe in Brent Brennan. I think hes a heck of a football coach. I believe in Noah Fifita. Hes one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the entire country. He was the best QB in the Big 12 last year. He has 34 career starts. They hit the portal to reinforce what they lost on defense. They also like a lot of their young guys.When you look at their schedule, they need eight wins, so they can only lose four games. At BYU is a tough game. Youve got TCU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona State. Thats their November schedule. I think theyre going to need one of those games to get to eight. They will win one of those games in November. Klatt: Similar to UCLA, theres going to be an infusion of energy. Youve got all of these transfer players that have played really well at a lower level that are coming in from North Texas. And I kind of like it. Eric Morris brought in QB Drew Mestemaker, the nations leading passer. Youve got Caleb Hawkins, their running back. He was fifth in college football in rushing last year and first in rushing touchdowns. They brought in Wyatt Young, their wide receiver. He was third in college football in receiving yards.North Texas led the country in scoring and total offense a year ago. They can do that in the Big 12. Maybe not leading the country, but this is going to be a really good football team.I know that the bar is low as far as what they won a year ago. They reached the American championship game last year at North Texas and won 12 games. This feels just like Bob Chesney going to UCLA or Curt Cignetti going to Indiana. Morris going to Oklahoma State with everything he can do as a coach and with that entire roster with a chip on their shoulder. This is a team that can absolutely win six football games.Theyve got at Tulsa, Murray State, UCF, Colorado, at Iowa State and Kansas. They wouldnt need any other wins than those right there to hit the over. Theyve got other opportunities for road wins. Theyve got at West Virginia, at Kansas State, at Arizona State. To me, this is an easy over with what theyre bringing in. Klatt: Iowa State lost all of their players. They lost Matt Campbell. This is a proud program, but when you look at this league, remember, all of those teams are bunched together, and youve got to get to six wins. I just dont see it for Iowa State. So, 5.5 is a bit too rich for me. I hate to see this happen to that program. Im a fan of this program, but this year is going to be tough for Iowa State. I would have set the Over/Under at 4.5. The path to the under for me is far easier for them than the path to over.
Czech
English
Arabic
French
Spanish
Portuguese
Deutsch
Turkish
Dutch
Italiano
Russian
Portuguese (Brazil)
Greek