2026 Mets Draft profile: AJ Krodel
Villa Park, California native Andrew James Krodel attended the eponymously named high school in the district, lettering three years with the Spartans. In total, he hit .288/.356/.352 in 80 games and posted a 3.70 ERA in 98.1 innings, allowing 91 hits, walking 29, and striking out 90. The numbers, nor the fastball that hovered around 90 MPH, got him very little buzz in the baseball hot bed that is California and as such, the right-hander went uncalled in the 2023 MLB Draft, attending the University of California Santa Barbara that fall.Krodel appeared in 3 games for the Gauchos in his freshman season, allowing 4 earned runs in 3.2 innings- a 9.82 ERA- giving up 2 hits, walking 3, and striking out 4. He pitched for the Cowlitz Black Bears of the West Coast League that summer and had a more impressive showing for himself, posting a 2.25 ERA in 24.0 innings over 7 games, allowing 17 hits, walking 13, and striking out 16. When he returned to Santa Barbara, head coach Checketts gave the sophomore a little more leeway, but his performance was still subpar. Appearing in 11 games, the right-hander posted a 6.18 ERA in 27.2 innings, allowing 23 hits, walking 17, and striking out 37.That summer, Krodel supplemented his workload by pitching for a summer collegiate league, this time staying local and playing for the Santa Barbara Foresters of the California Collegiate League, playing with fellow 2026 draftee Aidan Keenan and 2025 Mets draft 13th rounder Frank Camarillo. Once again, against the competition there, the right-hander thrived, posting a 1.74 ERA in 31.0 innings over 7 starts, allowing 22 hits, walking 9, and striking out 44. Despite his success as a starter, pitching limited innings against an entire lineup, coach Checketts had the right-hander remain in the Gauchos bullpen for the 2026 season. The right-hander ended up appearing in 25 games and posting a 5.66 ERA in 35.0 innings, allowing 42 hits, walking 17, and striking out 42.The 64, 200-pound right-hander throws from a high-three-quarters arm slot with a long arm action through the back and above-average extension off the mound. The right-hander throws a four-pitch mix despite primarily pitching out of the bullpen, utilizing a two-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and circle changeup.His two-seam fastball has below-average velocity, sitting in the low-90s and very rarely topping out much higher. Despite that, the pitch has been an effective offering thanks to its rare combination of below-average spin rates but above-average induced vertical break readings. Thanks to the active spin the baseball does get, the pitch produces seam shifted wake effects that causes it to appear to resist gravity while breaking arm-side, diving late.Of the pitches he complements his unique fastball with, his circle changeup is likely the best of the bunch. Sitting in the low-to-mid-80s, the pitch has racked up strikeouts against left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters alike thanks to its extreme arm-side fade. His mid-to-high-70s curveball and high-70s-to-low-80s sweeping slider both show some promise, especially his slider, but are both are still very raw as pitches, relying more on overall movement than the sharpness of the break.Just as batters have had a hard time dealing with the movement on his pitch mix, striking out at a 27.1% over his three years combined with the Gauchos, Krodel generally has trouble commanding his repertoire. The right-hander often misses his spots, leading to a high 12.1% walk rate over the course of his collegiate career, almost 5% higher than the MLB average. Being unable to command his pitches has often caused the right-hander to try to finesse them into the strike zone, often leading to pitches in hittable parts of the strike zone and disastrous results. Batters hit .263/.366/.435 against him with a .351 BABIP, with a poor 36.7% groundball rate, 15.3% line drive rate, 48.0% flyball rate, and 14.9% HR/FB rate.
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