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Ignore the batting average column when it comes to MLB statistics. Some of these guys are hitting .280-plus, and theyre still here on this list. That is because this list sorts on xwOBA, which measures how hard and how squarely you hit the ball, not whether it found grass. That gap is the story: Ernie Clement is hitting .297 with a .275 xwOBA, a 51-point cushion that isnt going to hold. One thing to keep in mind is that eight of these ten play center, short, or second. The worst hitter isnt the worst player.MORE: MLB Power Rankings after the 2026 All-Star break10. Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (CF)Sep 19, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) doubles during the fourth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn ImagesCeddane Rafaelas .282 average and .336 wOBA look fine until you see the .285 xwOBA underneath. Thats a 51-point overpayment on only 5.0% of barrels. And heres the thing: he was 4th on our best defenders list at +10.01 FRV. Thats how a bat this quiet keeps a job in the major leagues.9. Jose Altuve, HOU (2B)The name that makes you look twice. Jose Altuves .285 xwOBA over 313 plate appearances, with a .310 wOBA sitting 25 points above it, shows the results are already running ahead of the contact. Thats the whole claim, this half-season only.8. Sal Frelick, MIL (RF)No trickery in this one. Sal Frelicks .281 xwOBA and .286 wOBA, five points apart, explain that the line and the contact agree completely. Just 2.0% of barrels on 27.8% hard-hit at an average exit velocity of 85.9 mph, and only four homers in 308 plate appearances. Theres nothing hiding, but theres also nothing coming.7. Brooks Lee, MIN (SS)With fourteen homers and 51 RBIs, Brooks Lee looks to be having a productive season. However, it hasnt been. Only a .277 xwOBA against a .324 wOBA is 47 points of borrowed production, built on 3.8% barrels. The counting stats are the mirage; the contact quality is the bill.6. Ernie Clement, TOR (2B)Apr 6, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement (22) hits an RBI single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn ImagesErnie Clements .297 average is the prettiest number on this entire list and the least predictive. His .275 xwOBA on 2.4% barrels and 85.2 mph exit velocity says almost none of it is repeatable. That .326 wOBA is 51 points of pure overpayment. It is expected to come down in the second half.5. Ezequiel Tovar, COL (SS)Ezequiel Tovars .202 average and .255 wOBA thats actually below his .273 xwOBA showcase that hes been slightly unlucky on top of being unproductive. And he plays half his games in Colorado, where offense goes to thrive. Also, his twenty-five percent strikeouts say theres no cushion here to lose.4. Nasim Nuez, WSH (2B)Thirty-three steals and a .5% barrel rate. Nuez topped our best-base stealers list at +3.697 steal run value, and the legs are the entire case. He only has a .271 xwOBA on 84.6 mph contact, which is one of the emptiest offensive profiles in baseball. Only one homer in 305 trips to the plate.3. Andrs Gimnez, TOR (SS)A .232 average, a .265 xwOBA, and total agreement between the two highlight Andrs Gimnezs poor offensive production so far this season. With just 3.4% barrels and a 3.6% walk rate, theres no on-base floor propping it up either. The glove at short is whats keeping him on a major league roster.2. Chandler Simpson, TB (LF)Jul 19, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson (14) hits an infield single against the Boston Red Sox during the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn ImagesZero barrels. Not a low rate, but exactly zero in 351 plate appearances for Chandler Simpson, on 14.3% hard-hit contact at 84.1 mph. He hit .282 and stole 22 bags, and his .293 wOBA still sits 29 points above a .264 xwOBA. He has elite wheels, but hes no threat anywhere else.1. Cedric Mullins, TB (CF)Cedric Mullins holds the worst expected line in baseball at a .262 xwOBA, 71 points below the .333 pool average. His offensive production sits at a .203 average, 4.1% barrels, 31.4% hard-hit, .281 wOBA is within 19 points, so theres no rebound waiting. This is the level, not a slump. Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories on The Big Lead

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