The Rams must be careful with big contracts next year
HOLLYWOOD, FL - MARCH 18: Stacks of money are seen in what is being called a first-of-its-kind exhibit of five million dollars in cash at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino on March 18, 2009 in Hollywood, Florida. The display consists of $100 bills encased in a 1,300-pound, custom-made $90,000 bullet-resistant Lexan showcase. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) | Getty ImagesTeams with top-heavy payrolls, which could be any team with 50-percent of their cap space allocated to 12 or fewer players, tend to disappoint their fans come playoff time and the L.A. Rams could be headed in that direction. With 29 pending free agents heading into next year, the Rams need to avoid spending too much of their budget on too few players, setting themselves up for failure in 2027 and beyond due to injury or a lack of funds for their supporting cast.The Rams will be paying the price next year. The only question will be: who do they keep?The MethodologyI put together a list of 12 teams, six each from the NFC and AFC, to get a mix of teams that, in my opinion, performed well and those that disappointed last season to see if there was any correlation between spending too heavily on a small number of players and the teams overall performance. It would appear that teams that spent upwards of 50% of their budget on 12 or fewer players were susceptible to severe consequences from injury to any of those players (for example, Cincinnati) and also lacked the necessary funds to build a strong foundation throughout the team. The Dallas Cowboys lacked the funds to field a decent defense for this very reason.Not surprisingly, the top four teams in terms of managing their budgetsPatriots, Broncos, Seahawks, Eagleshad the best records last year. By spending less at the top, teams can build a superior supporting cast. The Seahawks, for example, had 25 players inside the top 50-percent of their 2025 cap and were widely regarded as one of the most balanced teams in the league.The Rams 2025 CapPlease understand I am far from a cap specialist. For simplicity, the list is made up of the cap hits listed by Spotrac and I listed each team from top to bottom and added the percentages until it was approximately 50%.Heres how the 2025 L.A. Rams allocated their top 50-percent of the budget:Notice how a player like TuTu Atwell takes up 3.6-percent, just ahead of players like Tyler Higbee and Darious Williams. Think of how much better L.A.s cap could be without so much cap tied up in players who contribute little-to-nothing for the team.Often, the worst spending is on players who get injured, especially when they take up 3 percent of the cap or more. Look at the Cincinnati Bengals, for example:Of the 6 players who made up the top 50%, a significant amount of time was spent on the IR. Joe Burrow and Trey Hendrickson spent 18 games on the IR between them, meaning 13% of the cap was unavailable.The breakdownHow many top players eat up 50 percent of each teams salary cap? Here are the six teams in each conference that I mentioned earlier and how many players fit inside their top 50 percent of the cap, as well as the effects of players who ended up on IR:2025 NFC:Seattle, 25 players with minimal IR hitPhiladelphia, 15 players minimal IR hitDallas, 12 players, minimal IR hitDetroit, 10 players, minimal IR hit *Los Angeles Rams, 9 players, large hit on IRChicago, 9 players, minimal IR hit* Detroit had 15 players on IR, representing a large hit2025 AFC:New England, 15 players, 4% on IR (14 players) Denver, 13 players, medium hit on IRBuffalo, 11 players, large hit on IRBaltimore, 8 players, large hit on IRKansas City, 8 players, large hit on IRCincinnati, 6 players, huge hit on IRThe teams with the fewest players comprising 50% of the cap, like the Bengals, Chiefs, and Ravens for instance, Cincinnati, were disappointments.Cincinnati rolled the dice with only six players taking up 50% of their cap space and the season was a disaster, ending 6-11. The Chiefs also finished 6-11.The Lions and Patriots had a significant amount of their payroll end up on the IR, which really hurt their supporting casts, but these were players outside of those making up 50 percent of their teams cap space. Detroit fell short of expectations and missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record, whereas New England overcame their faults and reached the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to Drake Mayes relatively cheap rookie salary.Already the Lions are suffering the injury bug in camp as they could lose center Cade Mays, a $25 million signing in the offseason, for over two months.#Lions center Cade Mays fractured a small bone in his wrist, an injury that will keep him out roughly 8-10 weeks, source said. Coach Dan Campbell called the injury significant. But Mays should be back by midseason, at least. pic.twitter.com/BGhztyidRw Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 10, 2026Injuries happen in the NFL, its unavoidable. But can the Rams avoid tying too much of their cap in too few players and then getting hammered by the injury bug like they were in 2022?The Rams cap situationWith only nine players salaries accounting for 50-percent of the cap, the Rams were able to buck the trend and perform at a high level in 2025 thanks to some really talented players still on rookie contracts. That window closes at the end of the 2026 season.The Rams have an incredible 29 players eligible for free agency in 2027. Looking over the group, I count at least 20 that had snaps last year, and a significant number of major contributors. Here are seven who will be looking for large salary increases, along with their current salary and Spotrac estimates for their market value:Puka Nacua, increase $5.8m to $50 millionKevin Dotson, $17.4m to $19.5mSteve Avila, $4.6m to $13.6mByron Young, $6m to $30mKobie Turner, $4.1m to $32.5mWarren McClendon, $1.2m to $19m (My estimate)Omar Speights, $1m to $4m (My estimate)These are only seven of the 29, and I intentionally left Davante Adams off the list because his contract, if he even comes back, should not be as expensive as it was to originally sign him in 2025.The 2027 salary cap should be in the $325 million range, according to Spotrac, an increase of $24 million, but several players are getting increases in their existing salaries. Trent McDuffies salary alone increases by $20 million next year, although L.A. has options to restructure it if they need to.So who do the Rams keep?Who the Rams can payIts difficult to even go down this road without knowing if Matthew Stafford intends to return in 2027 and/or 2028, as well as the potential cost of Aaron Donald if he decides to return in 2026. Even if Donald only plays in 2026, that will impact L.A.s spending ability in the future. Its either less money they can roll over into 2027 or his contract terms could be spread out over multiple years into the future in order to afford him now.So with that many variables, nobody can predict what the Rams can and should do moving forward. What is for certain is that some will stay and should be paid accordingly. When we get into the players lower on L.A.s priority order thats when the decisions really get tough.Whats for certain? Its better to have more talent than less talent, and with a team as talented as the L.A. Rams, its important to find values in the draft for when the talent breaks down.
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