Analytics gives Browns worst playoff chances, by a lot; Cardinals not even listed
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 16: Chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta (L) and general manager Andrew Berry of the Cleveland Browns watch warmups prior to a game against the New England Patriots at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 16, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty ImagesVeterans report to Berea, Ohio, on Tuesday for the start of Cleveland Browns training camp. There are still a lot of unknowns, including whether the Browns roster full of young talent will translate to victories, who will start at quarterback, what is next for Dawand Jones, and who will fill out the last two starting offensive line spots.Before we get answers to all of that, we are looking forward to training camp highlights and who the camp hero fighting for a roster spot will be for Cleveland this year.As of now, betting line predictions for the Browns are very low. With a new head coach, Myles Garrett out in Los Angeles (and cutting another tie to Cleveland), and another QB competition, there are a lot of reasons to be down on the Browns win total this year but this low?So you're telling me there's a chance pic.twitter.com/GKo601L05m FTN (@FTNFantasy) July 14, 2026A little bit about DVOA, an analytical tool I use every year for national playoff prediction pieces for SB Nation:FTNs DVOA is a metric that breaks downthe quality of play compared to the league averagewhile adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.In their playoff prediction data, Cleveland is ranked worse than they were at the end of last year, based on DVOA, when they were 30th in the NFL, ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. Compared to the DVOA model, FanDuel has the Browns at +700 to make the playoffs, better than three teams, including the Arizona Cardinals, who are a league-worst +2000. As seen above, the Cardinals dont even make the list, and Clevelands odds are half that of any other team.A wide gap between what the analytics data says and what a major sports betting book has the odds.How many teams do you think the Browns should be ahead of in playoff projections? Do you think being ranked in the bottom 5 is fair before training camp starts, or should their young talent have them much higher?Share your thoughts with us below in the comment sectionJoin the conversation!Sign up for a user account and get:Fewer adsCreate community postsComment on articles, community postsRec comments, community postsNew, improved notifications system!