The Green Bay Packers feasted on interceptions in 2024, grabbing 17 of them throughout the season, and placed an even greater emphasis on taking the ball away during training camp the following year.Then they only managed nine picks in 2025, cutting their tally almost in half, and tying for their fewest in a season since 2018.The drop off in interceptions was much discussed throughout the season, and of all the possible explanations, the most valid one may simply be regression.It is no secret that interceptions are volatile, but adding some numbers to the conversation can help contextualize what happened to the Packers in 2025.During a recent appearance on The Athletic Football Show, Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy professed that on average across time, around 20% of pass break ups result in interceptions. Of course, the rate can vary wildly for different teams in different seasons.Teams can run hot or cold without much rhyme or reason. The truth is that in 2024, the Packers ran very hot with interceptions, and most of that came down to Xavier Mckinney.By adding up the actual interceptions Green Bay had to their pass break ups in 2024 in order to get the total number of times they got hands on the ball, the sum comes to 46.Based on an expectation that 20% of those should have resulted in picks, the Packers had an expected interception total of 9.2. Grabbing 17 interceptions is a significant overperformance, and McKinney was responsible for most of it.McKinney had an expected interception number of 2.2 in 2024, and turned it into eight picks.The other two points of overperformance were from Carrington Valentine and Jaire Alexander, who were expected to have one interception based on how often they got hands on the ball, but each had two.In 2025, the Packers actually got their hands on the ball more often than the year before, with their picks and PBUs adding up to 54. Based on that, they would have been expected to notch 10.8 interceptions, but this time they ran cold, only managing 9.On the face of it, that is not an egregious underperformance. The biggest culprit was Keisean Nixon, who tallied 2.8 expected interceptions but only produced one. Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker were both expected to have one, but did not manage to.On the other end of the scale, Evan Williams overperformed, with three of the four times he got hands on the ball resulting in a pick.The Packers were 15th in combined PBUs and interceptions per game in 2025 and tied 14th in expected interceptions per game, but finished 25th in actual picks per game, and ranked 29th in the rate of turning hands on the ball into interceptions, at just 16.67%.Schatz noted the average of 20%, but in 2025 it was higher, as the league as a whole turned 24.16% of their pass break ups into interceptions.At the other end of the scale, the Panthers led the league at 39.02%, with the Bears in second at 35.38%. They are prime regression candidates in 2026.It is worth noting that although interceptions are volatile, they are not purely luck. It is on the players to make plays when the opportunities arise, and in 2025 there were plenty of moments where it seemed impossible the Packers had let another one slip away.The encouraging news is that Green Bay did get hands on the ball more regularly in 2025, and that implies they were not doing much wrong, and simply need to hold on to the football better when it is thrown to them in 2026.Speaking to the media on Thursday, McKinney discussed the rollercoaster they have been on with interceptions and takeaways as a whole.He said: Thats an emphasis for us regardless. Even when we have times when we take the ball away at a high level, were still preaching takeaways.We know we have the personnel to take the ball away, so were preaching that now. Were trying to get the ball out, whether its punch outs, whether its picks, whatever it is, were trying to get the ball because we know weve got the playmakers to be able to do so."Quizzed on the lack of turnovers in 2025, head coach Matt LaFleur did not have much of an explanation for the drop off, but did stress that they will continue to work on taking the ball away moving forward.LaFleur said: I think thats one of the secret sauces that everybodys trying to figure out: How do you get the ball back? Certainly its been a point of emphasis and I feel like last year we emphasized it as much, if not more than any other year, they just didnt come.In order to get the ball back at times you might have to be a little bit more aggressive defensively, I think when you look at some of the teams that are able to take the ball away, you see that."With a new defensive coordinator, the Packers will look to keep getting in the right positions and hope the variance turns in their favor in 2026.This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: What happened to Packers' interceptions? Examining the 2025 drop off