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The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: August Edition
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 22: Brent Headrick #47 and Paul Blackburn #58 of the New York Yankees look on during spring training at Himes Complex on February 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty ImagesAt last Mondays Trade Deadline, the Yankees had an opportunity to augment a bullpen that, despite ranking second in MLB in both ERA and xERA, seemingly had room for another high-end arm. Instead, GM Brian Cashman traded away Camilo Doval, Jake Bird, and Yovanny Cruz. The most charitable interpretation here is addition by subtraction. Doval and Bird two of three relievers Cashman acquired at the 2025 deadline had been major disappointments (while Cruz had made just four appearances this year and was more of a depth piece). Their ouster creates opportunities for others to take a step forward in the pecking order.As I do each month in a given season, Im going to take a look at the Yankees relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward using the following ranking system:5: As confident as one can be in a reliever, the most fickle position in baseball4: High degree of confidence, but some trepidation remains3: Glass half full or glass half empty? The choice is yours2: Major concerns here, though perhaps a glimmer of hope1: Absolute zero usually reserved for those with a minimal track recordStatistics below are from July 1-August 6.The CloserDavid BednarRecent stats: 14.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, 17 SO, 2.69 FIP, 9 Saves (in 9 opportunities)Regardless of what happened at the deadline, with the possible exception of a Mason Miller acquisition, Bednar was going to remain the teams closer, and for good reason. After an uneven start to the season, hes allowed runs to score in just one of 25 outings since May 18th, a remarkable run of excellence thats largely flown under the radar. In a bullpen thats experienced some flux, hes been low drama, exactly what you want out of your closer.Confidence level: 5Bednar is seventh among active players in saves, with everyone ahead of him older and longer tenured. The combination of his excellence this year and track record over his career makes him one of the most reliable closers in baseball. The Set-Up MenBrent HeadrickRecent stats: 18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 27 SO, 0.60 FIPOver his first three seasons, Headrick pitched more at Triple-A than in the big leagues, appearing to be no more than a depth piece. This year? As Michael Baumann over at FanGraphs eloquently outlined on Thursday, hes putting up one of the best reliever seasons in Yankees history. Among primary relievers, only Miller and Louis Varland have lower ERAs.Confidence level: 5I was skeptical of Headricks success early in the season, but hes sustained this level of performance for long enough that it cannot be ignored. And his peripherals, including elite whiff and barrel rates, support that this is no fluke. Hes firmly entrenched in the late-inning mix, and rightfully so.Paul BlackburnRecent stats: 22.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 23 SO, 4.24 FIPSay what you will about the Yankees organization they can take a washed up journeyman and turn him into a star reliever like no other team in baseball. Blackburn is the latest beneficiary of the Luke Weaver effect, transforming from a struggling swingman into a back-end option. After using him in long relief for most of the season, Boone has begun inserting him in the eighth, with strong early results.Confidence level: 3.5Blackburn deserves credit for his turnaround, but the jurys still out on how sustainable it will be. While hes not missing many bats, his 56.5 ground-ball rate suggests he may have a legitimate new formula. If he performs well in another month of high-leverage usage, Ill feel much more confident he can be part of the path to Bednar moving forward.The Middle RelieversFernando CruzRecent stats: 14 IP, 3.21 ERA, 14 SO, 5.10 FIPAfter working as a set-up man, Cruz has been deployed recently as the first man out of the bullpen to bail out a fading starter to get to the late innings. Wherever Boone uses him, he knows what hes getting: a pitcher with a one-of-a-kind splitter who both misses bats and issues walks as much as anyone in baseball.Confidence level: 4Cruz is a known quantity at this point. His energy on the mound and ability to dominate on his best day more than make up for the days when he loses the strike zone and works himself into trouble. He remains very much in the high-leverage picture.Tim HillRecent stats: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 5 SO, 9.10 FIPAfter a remarkably consistent run through nearly two years in New York, Hills bag of tricks has begun to wear out its welcome. Since May 12th, his ERA has ballooned from 1.00 to 4.40 as hes allowed 21 runs (19 earned) in 25 innings. Unsurprisingly, hes slipped out of the inner ring of Boones circle of trust.Confidence level: 2.5Hills numbers remain strong against lefties, maintaining his value as a lefty specialist. Otherwise, though, his stock has taken a major hit.The Long RelieverRyan YarbroughRecent stats: 10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5 SO, 4.89 FIPIts been an odd season for Yarbrough, who has performed well despite intermittent usage. His hard-hit rate of 22.5 percent tops MLB (Cruz is second) despite or, perhaps, because of throwing one of the slowest fastballs in the game. Of note for his recent stats: Yarbrough has allowed six unearned runs this month.Confidence index: 2.5Yarbrough is perfectly suited for his long relief role, giving a different look than any other Yankees pitcher while eating some lower-leverage innings. The Mop-Up MenYerry De los SantosRecent stats: 9.1 IP, 5.79 ERA, 7 SO, 3.38 FIP (at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)This is where the Yankees bullpen starts to get scary. After moving Doval and Bird (and sending Angel Chivilli down to Triple-A), the Yankees promoted De los Santos, who had been getting absolutely torched at Triple-A. He does have a strong 2.84 ERA in 30 appearances with the Yankees over the past two seasons, but if the team had confidence that was indicative of his potential theyd have called him up earlier in the season.Confidence level: 1De los Santos has been useful as a Quadruple-A player, but the prospect of him becoming a mainstay in the bullpen is alarming. Were one injury away from the 28-year-old starting to see action late in close games.Kervin CastroRecent stats: 3.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO, 1.90 FIPCastro has earned his shot. After last pitching in the bigs for the Cubs in 2022, the Yankees took a flier on him last year and he excelled at Triple-A, a run of success he continued this year. Over both seasons, he posted a 1.63 ERA at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The early returns with the Yankees have been strong as well, with three scoreless outings since he was recalled in late July.Confidence level: 1Id love to see Castros Cinderella story continue, but success at Triple-A does not always translate at the big-league level. Hell need to show a lot more before he gains any trust in Boones bullpen pecking order.
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