Something is wrong with Paul Skenes. That much is indisputable.The reigning NL Cy Young, just 24 years old, has looked diminished for a while now still capable but noticeably below the supersonic standard he set during his first two big-league seasons. A slight but certain dip in his fastball velocity has accompanied a similar decline in his statistical output. Between mid-May and early July, the Pirates lost nine of Skenes starts. Yet patience seemed prudent. This was still one of the best in the business. Skenes would get things sorted. How could he not?But in the big mans most recent showing, a five-inning trudge on Tuesday in Miami, those yellow flags turned scarlet. His four-seam fastball velocity dipped to a career single-game low of 95.7 mph, nearly a tick and a half below his previous start. Most telling, however, was the outings briefness. Pittsburgh skipper Don Kelly removed Skenes after just five innings and 65 pitches, sparking speculation about a potential injury.After the game, yet another soul-crushing defeat for the down-and-out Pirates, Kelly offered a fragile endorsement of his hurlers health.Anybody this time of year is . not injured, but guys in August arent 100 percent, Kelly said, per MLB.com. It wasnt injury-related that he came out.Just a few months ago, the idea of a hale Skenes being yanked on such a low pitch count in a close game would have been downright inconceivable. Remember, this guy wasnt just good; he was extraordinary beyond compare.Across 2024 and 2025, Skenes delivered the single greatest two-year start to a pitching career in MLB history. Over 320 2/3 frames, the 2023 No. 1 pick posted a microscopic 1.96 ERA over 55 starts with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Statistically speaking, nobody in the long and winding baseball story had ever been that good out of the shoot. Skenes was imposing, untouchable, inevitable, indomitable. A bully, a star, an ace.Now, Skenes 3.88 season ERA ranks 37th out of 58 qualified starting pitchers. The peripherals look somewhat rosier hes still racking up strikeouts at an elite clip but its impossible to argue that everything is hunky-dory.So what, exactly, is wrong? Lets flip through the possibilities.1. Skenes is injuredCall it Occams Scalpel: Any pitcher under 30 years old with a track record of success who experiences a significant dip in velocity or a prolonged dip in effectiveness is probably hurt. Surgery is usually the fix, the long path back to ones best self.Theres definitely an element of fatalistic laziness in directing any underperforming pitcher to an MRI machine or operating table. But thats the unfortunate reality of baseballs modern age, in which elbow ligaments are interchangeable and surgeons are celebrities. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, so they break more than ever. At least were better than ever at putting them back together again.Skenes and his skipper have repeatedly denied the presence of a significant injury, but that doesnt mean theres not some type of physical ailment hampering him. As Kelly alluded to, pitchers play through discomfort all the time. Knowing the difference between an ache you play through and an injury you dont is a massive part of being a big leaguer. Most pitchers arms would make an MRI machine fritz and sizzle. Its all about pain tolerance and performance.With this being such a critical campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a club that entered 2026 with legitimate playoff expectations for the first time in Skenes tenure, it makes sense that the face of the franchise might be hesitant to accept an IL stint. That would be both commendable and foolhardy. After all, even this reduced version of Skenes is better than whatever depth option would fill his rotation spot.2. Theres a mechanical issuePitchers, like people, often change over time. Thats not inherently a bad thing. Bodies evolve; the game does, too. Over-analyzing and over-indexing mechanical minutiae across seasons or starts, particularly for a layman, can be a fool's errand.Yet its strikingly clear that Skenes is moving differently than he used to.Not a pitching coach, but easy to spot some differences between 2026 Skenes and 2024 Skenes.Arm path has gotten longer and he's way more rotational than he used to be. More like a carousel, less like a ferris wheel. pic.twitter.com/X4dDzK6wqV Jake Mintz (@Jake_Mintz) August 13, 2026Keep an eye on his right arm after the hands separate and before the front foot lands. For whatever reason, 2026 Skenes is employing a significantly longer arm path than 2024 Skenes. This has probably led to a downtick in deception; hitters are able to see his throwing hand clearer and for longer, making the baseball easier to pick up.Skenes is also significantly more rotational now than he used to be, moving more like a swivel chair and less like a windmill. Thats likely the cause behind his longer arm path; issues with the lower half are often the root cause of issues with the upper half. Because hes sinking deeper into his back leg, hes forcing himself to be more rotational to escape that position, which is in turn leading to the arm path.These changes could be intentional or accidental. Perhaps Skenes wanted to adopt a more natural, free-flowing arm path to try to avoid the injury woes that have befallen shorter-arm-path guys such as Spencer Strider, Lucas Giolito and Joe Musgrove. Perhaps general wear and tear have stiffened his shoulder or elbow, necessitating a longer path. Perhaps this is all inadvertent.3. The workload has gotten to himIts hard to believe, but Paul Skenes is two months younger than Jacob Misiorowski.Skenes arrived in The Show fully formed, with the body of a moose and the deep, rumbling voice of a race car engine. Meanwhile, Milwaukees flame-throwing phenom debuted a year after Skenes and has the face, Pokemon collection and comportment of a 12-year-old. Another key difference between last years Cy Young winner and this years Cy Young favorite is the workload restrictions that have been placed upon them.At first, the Pirates were cautious with Skenes. He barely threw in pro ball in the months after he was drafted in 2023. Pittsburgh got some heat in 2024 for sending Skenes to Triple-A in order to limit his innings. In seven minor-league outings, he went above 66 pitches just twice and never surpassed 75. But as soon as Skenes arrived in the bigs, the training wheels came off. Since his debut on May 11, 2024, Pittsburghs right-handed hope has thrown the seventh-most pitches in MLB.Misiorowski, by comparison, ranks 62nd in regular-season pitches thrown in the 14 months since his debut. Skenes, over a similar span following his first MLB outing, ranked 13th.Compared to the aces of yesteryear, these inning and pitch totals are childs play. But those on-mound ancestors werent stretching their ligaments asunder to squeeze every last drop of velocity out of every single pitch. Skenes was and still is. The Pirates rode him hard because, by all indications, he was up to the challenge.Plus, he and the team knew they needed every last one of his innings to have a shot at contending. Skenes and his massive frame looked custom-built to carry 200 innings a year. But theres a decent chance the big guy needs to dial back the workload. These days, theres no shame in that.4. Hes out of shapeDont believe the bloviating radio shock jocks: Those paparazzi photos of a shirtless Skenes strolling the beach are not an actual data point. Our society loves overreacting to zoomed-in, unflattering photos of professional athletes, and Skenes is merely the latest victim of this unsavory trend. Also, a larger body does not inherently imply an out-of-shape individual. Remember, CC Sabathia is in the Hall of Fame.And despite all the public responsibilities and opportunities associated with his ascending celebrity, Skenes is famously finicky about his offseason regimen. For instance, he agreed to appear at a Fanatics Super Bowl party only if he could secure time at a qualified training facility nearby. Its patently unfair to imply that Skenes is phoning it in or letting himself go.But while its impossible to imagine Skenes under-training, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which he over-trained or mis-trained. Not every offseason plan works. Maybe Skenes threw too much or too little last winter. Maybe he spent too much time on cardio and not enough time on the squat rack. Maybe that water bag drill he loves is why hes over-rotating. Who knows? Maybe this winter hell pull a Victor Wembanyama and spend a few weeks at a monastery in rural China.No matter the reason or combination of reasons for his recent averageness, it would be shortsighted and irrational to give up on Skenes as a front-line arm. Still 24 years old, this man is neither cooked nor unc. He is simply too athletic, too intelligent and too driven to be this mediocre for the long haul.That said, Skenes and the Pirates pitching apparatus deserve some criticism for what has transpired this season. Barring a late-season heater, this Buccos season will go down as one of the most disappointing in franchise history. Thats saying something. Skenes was supposed to lead the line, pushing Pittsburgh back to the postseason. And while hes not responsible for most of the shortcomings infecting this franchise, a repeat of his 2025 wouldve had the Pirates in the postseason hunt.Baseball history is littered with flashes in the pan, pitchers who shined bright only to fade quickly. Injuries, more often than not, were the culprit in those scenarios. Accordingly, that remains the only long-term concern for Skenes. But if he is healthy, a full offseason of rest and tinkering and resetting should get him back on track.Sadly, for the 2026 Pirates, itll be too late.